Next oil crisis

Forecast on the next oil crisis where politics and economy in unique incomprehensible decisions go full throttle straight against the wall.

Accoring to the testimony of the Energy Watch Group autumn 2007 was peak-oik autumn 2006. In the area of the peak is all very flat. So the price development from autumn 2007 to July 2008 showed slightly increasing demand and slightly decreasing supply, what leaded to $147 record price per barrel.

Gentle price increase over 9 month

As shocking the price increase from $70 to $147 in 9 month was, it was in fact gentle. This because it is flat in the peak area. The oil production decreased soft.

The first fossil recession may have decreased oil demand by 8 million barrel a day. It's only a question of time until the next conflict between demand and production.

According to an interview with IEA in April 2008 decreases oil production 3,7 to 4,2 % pro Jahr. In the moment, politics and economy tries to bring oil demand on a collision course with oil production.. Conjunctur program is this madness called. But it's only possible to escape a fossil recession by stoping to produce scrap and radical change to renewable energy.

Much faster and higher price increase

Autumn 2007 to June 2008 was a gentle touch between supply and demand. The next collision will not be in the flat peak area, but where it is step downwards. Many conventional oil saving methods like slower big ships are already used up.

We are heading to a brutal crash. Many governments will not stand this. So there are hectic activities at PEGE to sketch the golden Weste V2.0.

Politics - political targets of PEGE
	Nonpolitical, pragmatic, on the other side of ideologies counts in our politic only one target: A long time lasting civilization able to develop further on a stable base.

Philosophy
	Long-term planning and stability have to be the guiding rules of politics. A philosophy based on the mathematic branch of games theory.

Living standard
	What is living standard? How is living standard correctly measured? Is it possible, that our living standard declines drastic, while uncorrect numbers want to make us belive it's like paradise?

Taxes tax politics
	The consequences of the tax politic for humans and environment. The politicians claim to fight for humans and the environment, but the tax politics shows the exact opposit.

Energy politic
	Decades of wrong energy politic. Instead of more living standard with less energy usage, partial the contrary was reached. A result of the wrong tax politic.

Danger low oil price
	January 24th 2009: Claudia Kemfert, leader of the department for energy at the DIW German institut for economic resarch reveals the dangers of a low oil price.

USA: weak government destroies car industry
	The USA could be today leading in the production of modern cars. The laws had been, but a weak government caused the disaster.

D-Day in a historical comparison
	D-Day - Invasion in the Normandy June 6th 1944, the begining of the end of the sutck in the mud rassists vs rest of the world. The suck in the mud fossils will have sone their D-day.

IEA prognosis wrong, pressure from the USA
	This message from November 10th is the big hammer. Look at the news with all the unimportant garbage, showing You, that You are good informed.

US President Obama: car limits: to little to late
	I drove 1993 to 1996 a Renault Espace Minivan from 1989. This minivan built 20 years ago fulfilled the consumption limits in the US from 2016.

Gorbatschow calls the West for a Perestroika
	Gorbatschow took the government after the complete unable for reforms Brezhnev. He knows best, when only a total reform can help.

G8 summit climate protection -50 is 100% not enough
	50% less yearly production of green house gases until 2005 is ridiculously. It is the question will be -150% less enough, but -150% is the absolut minimum.