First fossil recession

World economy is in the first fossil recession. Peak-oil raised the oil price and destabilised the economy. Recession, breakdown of oil demand and price.





It's possible to think about many different reasons for the recession. Maybe all the bubbles bursted. They know in the economy about the bubbles, only not about the exact time when they burst. Peak-oil bursted all the bubbles.

  April 2008: Dramatic interview with Fatih Birol from the IEA


Turnaround of the IEA. They want no more demand oriented prognosis without looking on the production capacity. It's expected, that existing oil wells will have a reduction of production.

  WEO: 6 times Saudi Arabia until 2030


In the WEO 2008 of the IEA, it's expressed like this: To continue with crude oil like until now, it's necessary to develop 6 times the capacity of Saudi Arabia new.

Okay, go to the bank with the wonderful prepared geological study about a new discovered oil well, where the cost of the oil production is estimated to $85 to $105 per barrel.

The banker will shake his head, You will argument, that even the IEA prognosis oil prices beyond $200. The banker will tell You, that such oil price peaks are only for a few month until the next recession or depression and influences not the long time rentability calculation for the new oil well.

  Until 2018: Replace 40 million Barrel per day by solar electric power


Fossil recession means the economy strangled by less production of fossil energy. The only escape is a huge change to renewable energy.

Politics - political targets of PEGE Politics - political targets of PEGE
Nonpolitical, pragmatic, on the other side of ideologies counts in our politic only one target: A long time lasting civilization able to develop further on a stable base.


Philosophy Philosophy
Long-term planning and stability have to be the guiding rules of politics. A philosophy based on the mathematic branch of games theory.


Living standard
What is living standard? How is living standard correctly measured? Is it possible, that our living standard declines drastic, while uncorrect numbers want to make us belive it's like paradise?


Taxes tax politics
The consequences of the tax politic for humans and environment. The politicians claim to fight for humans and the environment, but the tax politics shows the exact opposit.


Energy politic
Decades of wrong energy politic. Instead of more living standard with less energy usage, partial the contrary was reached. A result of the wrong tax politic.




  New year's 2009 speech of PEGE


The world experienced 2008 the first fossil recession. New year's speech of PEGE for a way to a stable economy and freedom from the dangerouse fossil energy.

In the change of time
PEGE was founded 1991 for strategies against a climate disaster in some decades. Today, it's for handling the first fossil recession.


Back stop for the price of oil products
The oil exit is irritated by the breakdown of the oil price. Out of this reason, taxes on oil have to be risen. Other taxes can be lowered as counterbalance.


Change tax system
The brakedown of the oil price gives a second chance. PEGE proposed 2005 a economic tax reform, to prepare economy for raising prices of fossil energy.


After the bulb: the 45km/h gasoline scooter
Energy saving lamps are several times more efficient than the bulb. The same applies in the 45km/h class for the energy efficiency of electric scooters against gasoline scooters.


Infrastructure for electric mobility
Electric outlets are everywhere, only not where to recharge an electric vehicle. Recharge at home, at the work place, in the shopping center enables electric mobility.


Solar duty as crude oil replacement
Solar duty for new buildings. In 10 years should the solar electric power from the roof of new buildings deliver as much electric power as the changed to electricity street traffic needs.




          First fossil recession: World economy is in the first fossil recession. Peak-oil raised the oil price and destabilised the economy. Recession, breakdown of oil demand and price. https://politics.pege.org/2009-new-year/first-fossil-recession.htm

Context description:  new year 2009 lecture speech allocution harangue salutation event events date time month 1 Jan January winter
politics political