The oil crisis and the economic crisis of 2008The crisis occurred 35 years after economic scientists failed to include the increasing scarcity of raw materials and alternative strategies in their calculations.
Peak - the high price of oil burst many latent economic bubbles. For the first time, a connection between the demand and supply of oil and prices was made: A US$20 higher price is equivalent to 1 million barrels shortfall on the market. The chance was missed in 1973, but now 35 years later was a good opportunity to start with the marginal analysis. PEGE did this on 20 June 2008,, and on 27 June 2008 the first series of articles on an oil phaseout based on marginal analysis was published. In business management "marginal analysis" is an altogether common concept but economic scientists persistently refuse to apply it to various supply chains for transportation and building heat. The best proof of this is Noble laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who in August 2011 was still demanding 3 to 4% economic growth for the USA. But what would happen to the oil price then? By how much would the US trade deficit rise, becasue although more is exported the costs of oil imports would rise much faster? |
