Oil production becomes a roulette gameThe extrem fast declining oil price damages the oil industry much more, than $180 oil price. Investments in costly explorations became extrem risky.
Until begining July, it looked like the oil price would raise and raise. Investors would explore and exploit the smallest oil field. How much more crude oil is possible to produce, when the price is $200 or even $300?
An investor wants to invest in a expensive to exploit oil field has a heavy decision. Will the oil price be 2010 $30 or $300? Will a heavy economic recession collapse the demand for oil or will a booming economy meet a decreasing oil production and the price explodes? An exiting, attritional question. Year long tension, bankruptcy or win. If You are such an investor, do not suffer so long. Go in the casino and put all Your capital on red or black. So You have this high tension in some minutes behind You.
Crude oil is not possible to plan, to forecast, a danger for every economy depending on it. So the exit is at a fast falling price at $80 even more important than at $180. Explanation: Why would an oilprice at $180 damage the oil industry? Because this would force a fast change to renewable energy. |