Club of Rome - "The Limits to Growth" 1972
The Dr. Hubbert peak oil theory of 1956 was shown to hold true for the USA in 1973, Club of Rome 1972, how was this incorporated in the economic sciences?
The core message of both: a scarcity of raw materials is possible and will occur. The first issue concerning scarcity: not all raw materials will become scarce at the same rate, so are there alternative options? What else could cars drive with? With coal, crude oil, natural gas, biomass or electricity. How can a building be heated? With coal, crude oil, natural gas, biomass, solar energy or electricity. Electricity can be used directly or for a heat pump that draws heat from various sources to heat the building. Electricity can be produced from coal, crude oil, natural gas, uranium, biomass, wind power, hydropower and solar energy.
Today we know that in the transport sector oil will be replaced with electricity from renewable energy stored in lithium-ion batteries. But why was there so little interdisciplinary collaboration after 1973 to assess the various scenarios? From nippy little electromobiles to the steam car, both of which had been invented by 1900.
The price is determined by supply and demand. But there are very different markets. There are markets where increased demand leads to lower prices and others where more demand pushes prices up.
Since the Club of Rome report "The Limits to Growth" and peak oil USA it was clear that an increasingly scarce source of energy can quickly become expensive and must be replaced by a different energy source, which is still relatively unexplored, where scarcity is not a problem and which will become cheaper through the transition to mass production.
Where have such scenarios been included in the calculations of economic science?