First fossil recession

World economy is in the first fossil recession. Peak-oil raised the oil price and destabilised the economy. Recession, breakdown of oil demand and price.



It's possible to think about many different reasons for the recession. Maybe all the bubbles bursted. They know in the economy about the bubbles, only not about the exact time when they burst. Peak-oil bursted all the bubbles.

  April 2008: Dramatic interview with Fatih Birol from the IEA


Turnaround of the IEA. They want no more demand oriented prognosis without looking on the production capacity. It's expected, that existing oil wells will have a reduction of production.

  WEO: 6 times Saudi Arabia until 2030


In the WEO 2008 of the IEA, it's expressed like this: To continue with crude oil like until now, it's necessary to develop 6 times the capacity of Saudi Arabia new.

Okay, go to the bank with the wonderful prepared geological study about a new discovered oil well, where the cost of the oil production is estimated to $85 to $105 per barrel.

The banker will shake his head, You will argument, that even the IEA prognosis oil prices beyond $200. The banker will tell You, that such oil price peaks are only for a few month until the next recession or depression and influences not the long time rentability calculation for the new oil well.

  Until 2018: Replace 40 million Barrel per day by solar electric power


Fossil recession means the economy strangled by less production of fossil energy. The only escape is a huge change to renewable energy.


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