2008 The begin of the end of the oil age
Many indicators show a clear result: In the history books will be the year 2008 chained to the begin of the end of the oil age.
The first half year was in the sign of an extreme fast increasing oil price. According to the theory, 1 million barrel per day to less production can be compensated by $20 higher price. Compared to the price middle 2007, July 2008 had been 4 million barrel not enough production.
The high oil price destabilized the economic system. Crisis for crisis in the recession. Near the end of the year is the oil price decreased $110. According to the theory, this means 5,5 million barrel per day less demand. In summer, there was a message, that alone the sea ships need 7,3 million barrel a day. Drastic less rates for raw materials. Saving measures like less speed could all together reduce alone at sea ships the demand by 3 million barrel a day. Long production interruptions in chemical factories, much less assignments for truck transportation.
In all the messages about the recession are all together easy more than 5,5 million barrel less demand.
The earlier imaginations about peak oil had been wrong. The economy is much to labil for long time continues raising prices. We experienced the real peak oil scenario 2008: Oil price explosion, recession, breakdown of oil demand and oil price. This will repeat in a rhythm of 2 to 3 years. Repeat until we invest huge in the fast change to renewable energy.
Who should at recession and bank crisis at $40 oil price invest in a new oidl field only profitable at $90 oil price? The decline of oil production will be in this way much faster than predicted.